Solar Activity

» 24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 4546 (S19W67, Hrx/alpha) producted the strongest flare of the period, a B9.3/Sf flare at 04/0630 UTC, the strongest of the period. No significant changes were obsreved in the four numbered spotted regions on the visible disk.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

» Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-flares through 06 Oct.

Energetic Particle

» 24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

» Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 04-05 Oct, returning to high levels by 06 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 06 Oct.

Solar Wind

» 24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to at enhanced levels, likely due to the influence of a CIR ahead of an anticipted positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field stregnth increased to a peak of 22 nT and Bz was observed as far south as -19 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily climbed after 04/0000 UTC, from ~325 km/s to ~500 km/s late in the reporting period. Phi angle transitioned to predominantly positive after 04/0425 UTC.

» Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions from the influence of a CH HSS are expected over 04-05, with conditions diminishing by 06 Oct.

Geospace

» 24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

» Forecast: Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 04 Oct due to continued influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream. Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist into 05-06 Oct as CH HSS influence continue, but wane.


Prepared by:
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, SWPC