Solar Activity

» 24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with a majority of the activity at C1 or less through about 13/1800 UTC. At 13/1821 UTC, a C5.5 x-ray event was observed off the NE limb from an unnumbered region. New Regions 4576 (S18W25, Bxo/beta), 4577 (S07E18, Cro/beta), and 4578 (S12W21, Cro/beta) were numbered.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

» Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 14-16 Nov.

Energetic Particle

» 24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 5,223 pfu observed at 13/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

» Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 14 Nov. A return to moderate levels is likely on 15-16 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels on 14-16 Nov.

Solar Wind

» 24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to decline over the period. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +5 to -3 nT. Solar wind speed decreased from 508 km/s to near 380 km/s. Phi angle was variable.

» Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on 14-15 Nov. A gradual increase in solar wind parameters is expected on 16 Nov due to an SSBC in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

» 24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

» Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 14-15 Nov, with an increase of of unsettled to isolated active periods on 16 Nov.


Prepared by:
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, SWPC