Solar Activity

» 24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3964 (N06W34, Dki/beta-gamma) produced an M7.5 flare (R2-Moderate) at 17/1335 UTC, the largest event of the period, in addition to frequent R1 (Minor) events. Region 3961 (S09E32, Eki/beta-gamma), which produced an M1.1 flare (R1-Minor) at 17/0308 UTC, and 3964 both exhibited moderate growth, especially among their respective intermediate spots. New Regions 3966 (N04E08, Bxo/beta) and 3967 (S18E72, Hax/alpha) were numbered this period, but were otherwise unremarkable. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

» Forecast: Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels over 18-20 Jan, with R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events likely, and a chance for R3 or greater events.

Energetic Particle

» 24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

» Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 20 Jan. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 18-20 Jan.

Solar Wind

» 24 hr Summary: Negative polarity CH HSS influences continued throughout the period. Total field strength reached 12 nT and the Bz component varied between +/-10 nT. Solar wind speed increased from 450 km/s to around 600 km/s. The phi angle was negative.

» Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions and negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to prevail through 20 Jan.

Geospace

» 24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled and active levels due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

» Forecast: Periods of active conditions are expected on 18 Jan, with quiet and unsettled conditions likely over 19-20 Jan, due to sustained negative polarity CH HSS influences.


Prepared by:
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, SWPC