Solar Activity

» 24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 4498 (N14W30, Dso/beta), 4499 (N04W65, Dai/beta) and 4501 (S07W68, Cso/beta) underwent decay and were relatively quiet. Region 4502 (S07W24, Dao/beta) continued consolidating in its leading spots and remained quiet as well.

A CME first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 03/1224 UTC, that was discussed in the previous reporting period, was assessed with now available C2 and C3 imagery. This new data had little effect on modeling parameters, and when combined with two other events from 03 Aug, still indicate potential for weak CME influences to Earth on 07 Aug. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

» Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 04-06 Aug.

Energetic Particle

» 24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

» Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to moderate levels through 06 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 06 Aug.

Solar Wind

» 24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected diminishing CME influences. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 5 to 11 nT before ending the period at 2-3 nT. The Bz component of the magnetic field was mostly southward with the largest deflections reaching -10 nT. Solar wind speeds were between approximately 350 km/s to 450 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive while undertaking several excursions to a negative solar sector.

» Forecast: Enhancements from CME effects are likely to continue, yet weaken, through 04 Aug, with a return to nominal levels expected by 05 Aug.

Geospace

» 24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic field activity was unsettled to active.

» Forecast: Quiet to active levels are expected on 04 Aug as lingering CME effects persist early in the period, with predominantly quiet conditions prevailing over 05-06 Aug.


Prepared by:
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, SWPC