Solar Activity

» 24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Low-level C-class X-ray emissions from a source around the W limb were the strongest of the period. Newly numbered Region 4244 (S21E64, Axx/alpha) was quiet as it rotated further from the E limb. Regions 4236 (N11W57, Eac/beta) and 4232 (N04W49, Dki/beta) remained the largest on the visible disk but did not produce any notable activity in the past 24 hours.

Additional activity included a filament eruption near S20E25 that began at around 05/2000 UTC and was ongoing at the time of writing. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

» Forecast: These exists a chance for solar flare activity to reach moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for strong (R3-Strong), over 06-08 Oct.

Energetic Particle

» 24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by the GOES-19 satellite reached high levels, with a peak flux of 23,594 pfu due to continuous +CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold over the past 24 hrs.

» Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels as the CH HSS continues over 06-08 Oct. There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaches the S1 (minor) threshold due to the potential from multiple active regions on the visible disk.

Solar Wind

» 24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT for most of the period. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds declined from ~550 to ~430 km/s over the reporting period. Phi angle was primarily oriented in the positive solar sector.

» Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at elevated, but waning levels over 06-07 Oct due to ongoing CH HSS influence. An additional enhancement is likely over 07-08 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of two slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct.

Geospace

» 24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached unsettled levels due to ongoing CH HSS influence.

» Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, over 06 Oct under waning CH HSS influence. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 07-08 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of two slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct.


Prepared by:
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, SWPC