Solar Activity

» 24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels with three numbered active regions on the visible solar disk. Region 4374 (N09W64, Cso/beta) remained the largest and most complex region during the period and was the source of a C1.0 flare at 19/1015 UTC and a C1.5 flare at 19/1918 UTC. It also contributed with the slow component of the largest flare of the day: a C2.0 flare at 19/0718 UTC, that included an impulsive component originated at a positive polarity plage area above Region 4374 (near N20W50). Region 4375 (N16W35, Hrx/alpha) and Region 4377 (N07W03, Hrx/alpha) remained stable and quiet during the period.

A very narrow CME was observed at the Northeast quadrant of LASCO/C2 imagery after 19/0930 UTC but preliminary analysis do not suggest impacts on Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed at available coronagraph imagery.

» Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare through 22 Feb, mostly due to the Region 4374 flare potential and due to active regions that are rotating into the visible disk in the next days.

Energetic Particle

» 24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak level of 3,260 pfu at 19/1450 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

» Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 22 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 22 Feb.

Solar Wind

» 24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS), with wind speeds ranging between 450-550 km/s during the day. Total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) oscillated around 5nT with a peak of 7 nT at 19/0509 UTC and. The north-south component of the IMF vector oscillated between +/-5 nT during the period. The Phi angle remained predominantly in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

» Forecast: The solar wind environment near Earth is expected to reflect the waning influences of the positive CH HSS, reaching background levels on 21-22 Feb.

Geospace

» 24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to +CH HSS influences.

» Forecast: The geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 20 Feb as +CH HSS conditions wane to background levels. Quiet levels are anticipated for 21-22 Feb.


Prepared by:
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, SWPC