Solar Activity

» 24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low to low. Only low level C-class activity was observed from Regions 4384 (N08W57, Cao/beta) and 4389 (N13E46, Ero/beta). Slight growth was observed in Regions 4384 and 4391 (N06E34, Cro/beta). New Region 4392 (S15E78, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. The rest of the spot groups were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

» Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 14 Mar.

Energetic Particle

» 24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,076 pfu observed at 11/1825 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

» Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 12-13 Mar. A decrease to normal to moderate levels is likely on 14 Mar due to CH HSS onset. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 14 Mar.

Solar Wind

» 24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced through 11/0920 UTC. Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 480 to 570 km/s during this time but decreased to around 400-460 km/s through the rest of the period. Total field was relatively steady at 6 nT while the Bz component was between +4/-5 nT. Phi angle was negative.

» Forecast: Near nominal levels are expected to return on 12 Mar before enhancements are again expected around midday on 13 Mar due to the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. HSS activity will persist through 14 Mar.

Geospace

» 24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

» Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 Mar. Onset of a CIR/CH HSS is expected around midday on 13 Mar causing unsettled to active conditions with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) conditions are expected to persist through 14 Mar.


Prepared by:
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, SWPC