Solar Activity

» 24 hr Summary: Solar activity has been at high levels with five (R1-Minor) flares throughout the period. The largest flare was an M4.7 at 04/1121 UTC from region 3981 (N07W03, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) which continues to be the largest, most magnetically complex region on the disk. Growth rate has slowed over the last 48 hours but continues to increase in size. The leader has grown slightly due to consolidation of interior spots and has become more symmetric. The trailer of Region 3981 however has a significant delta signature, is asymmetric, and exhibits quite a bit of shearing with the remaining interior spots.

The other region to produce R1-Minor level flaring was Region 3977 (N18W27, Eai/beta-gamma), it produced an M1.2 at 04/0518 UTC and an M3.2 at 04/1313 UTC. Weak flux emergence produced a new region, 3985 (N22E23, Bxo/beta) during the period. Most other regions have been either stable or in slight decay.

There was a CME detected in coronagraph imagery around 04/0300 UTC but was directed northward and is not expected to cause impacts.

» Forecast: Solar activity is expected to reach moderate levels (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate radio blackouts), with a slight chance for isolated X-Class (R3-Strong) events, through 07 Feb due to the complex cluster of sunspot groups in the northern hemisphere.

Energetic Particle

» 24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geostationary orbit have been at moderate (100 pfu) levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background.

» Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at moderate levels through 07 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton levels have a slight chance of reaching S1 (Minor) levels through 07 Feb due to the cluster of magnetically complex regions moving into the western hemisphere.

Solar Wind

» 24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions continue to trend towards nominal levels. The total field slowly decreased from 10 nT early in the period to currently near 5 nT. The Bz component of the field remained in the northward direction between 0-5 nT. Solar wind speeds oscillated between 400-450 km/s. The phi angle remained mostly in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

» Forecast: The solar wind is expected to remain at mostly nominal levels 05-06 Feb. A full halo, far-sided CME was observed in SOHO/Lasco imagery around 02/2100 UTC, there was an Earth-sided component that is expected to to arrive late 07 Feb into 08 Feb. Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced during this time.

Geospace

» 24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.

» Forecast: The geomagnetic field may see another isolated period of active conditions as CH/HSS influences wane but confidence is low. The field likely to remain at quiet levels through 06 Feb. The aforementioned CME in the Solar Wind forecast section is expected to bring unsettled, with a slight chance for active conditions during this time.

-Bri


Prepared by:
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, SWPC