Solar Activity

» 24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Slight separation and consolidation was observed in both Regions 4334 (S16W20, Cso/beta) and 4336 (S10E15, Eko/beta-delta), despite 4334 being the most active area on the disk. New Region 4338 (S05E22, Bxo/beta) developed and was numbered during the period. The remainder of the regions were in decay or crossing over the western limb and foreshortening affected analysis.

The u-shaped filament located south of ARs 4334 and 4336 began erupting at approximately 08/1630 UTC. This caused a sympathetic long-duration C5.6 flare from AR 4334 that peaked at 08/1730 UTC, which was the largest flare of the reporting period. This eruption and subsequent flare were accompanied by a Type IV radio sweep and an associated CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at ~08/1700 UTC.

There was also a C2.7 flare that peaked at 08/1609 UTC from Region 4334 with an associated CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at ~08/1705 UTC. This CME quickly becomes entangled with the filament eruption in coronagraph imagery, and modelling suggests these CMEs may catch up with the CME associated with the C4.4/Sf flare at ~08/0545 UTC, resulting in a near-Earth passage and potential glancing blow late on 10 Jan to early on Jan 11.

A C3.4 flare at 08/1956 UTC, also from Region 4334, was associated with a Type II (est speed 855 km/s) radio sweep associated with it, but a narrow, southward CME observed in LASCO C2 at ~09/0000 UTC appears to be related to the remainder of the u-shaped filament erupting. Analysis is still ongoing as more imagery becomes available.

» Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance (20%) for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 09-11 Jan.

Energetic Particle

» 24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

» Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 09-10 Jan, increasing to high on 11 Jan. Greater than 10 MeV proton events are not anticipated (1%) through 11 Jan.

Solar Wind

» 24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued enhancing throughout the reporting period, with the total magnetic field (Bt) increasing from 8 nT to 16 nT at the end of the reporting period. The Bz (north-south) component fluctuated between +/- 10 nT. Solar wind speed slowly increased from beginning speeds near 400 km/s to near 550 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in a negative orientation (towards the Sun).

» Forecast: Enhanced conditions are expected on 09 Jan, likely associated with the arrival of a CIR/CH HSS and possible influences from the 06 Jan CME. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected to continue through 11 Jan as CH HSS influence is expected to persist, with a potential greater disturbance on 10 Jan due to a possible glancing blow from several CMEs that left the Sun on 08 Jan.

Geospace

» 24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active levels.

» Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are expected, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions possible, on 09 Jan as the CH HSS/CME influences persist. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue on 10-11 Jan as the coronal hole moves further into a geo-effective position, along with the possible arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 08 Jan, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions late 10 Jan.


Prepared by:
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, SWPC