last update
07:55 UTC
SFI: 70 | Ap index:  16  | Kp index:  3  ( 3 @08:30,  2 @11:30)| X-ray flux:  A2.3 
SW: Density= 3.2 p/cm3 | Speed= 439.4 km/s | Temp=55(x1000)K
IMF: Bx=0.8nT | By=-3.1nT | Bz= -1.5 nT | Bt= 3.5 nT | Lat= -24.3 ° | Lon=284.6°
Sunspots: 0 | Area: 0 10-6/Hemi | New regions: 0
[i]X-ray flares: C=0 M=0 X=0 | Optical flares: M1=0 M2=0 M3=0 | Sub-flares=0
Due to the currently increasing coronal hole high-speed stream and the arrival of the CME observed on July 16th, the geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to active and minor storm (G1) levels early on July 19th. A second peak of activity is expected on July 20th due to substorms. The geomagnetic environment will return to unsettled levels later on July 20th.

The ENLIL cone model predicts a direct hit from an earth-directed CME on July 13th. The CME's speed is low (<500km/s) so it will not trigger a major geomagnetic storm but it will be able to disturb the geomagnetic environment. Hover the icon at the top of the page to check the latest space weather forecasts for more details as they become available.

This is a custom composite image from the HMI and AIA instruments onboard the SDO spacecraft. It highlights the complexity of two of the earth-facing regions at the moment (1785 and 1787).

Despite these big and complex regions, the activity remains at low levels with X-ray flux occasionally peaking in the "C" range. You can see the full-disk composite here.

A slow moving CME due to an eruption on Sunday June 30th will impact Earth on July 3rd. Although the ENLIL model estimates a direct hit, this coronal mass ejection is neither fast or dense and it will not trigger a significant geomagnetic storm.

After a 21 hours of constant southward orientation, the Bz and Theta (Latitude) IMF components have finally returned to normal values near 0nT and 0° respectively. The southward orientation brought a strong G3 geomagnetic storm. The peak Kp index value reached 7 (strong geomagnetic disturbance). Currently the index is fluctuating between 5 and 6.

This level of activity is associated with the following effects:

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)

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